As a result of this change a key indicator to look is last year’s men world’s championship. It is worth watching Philippe Gilbert’s amazing attack again.  All the signs point towards an epic battle between Peter Sagan and Gilbert up the Caubery. Gilbert knows he can’t beat him in a sprint as Wednseday’s finish at De Brabantse Pijl proved. Therefore his focus will be on trying to shed Sagan on the climb while Sagan knows if he can follow the Gilbert attack then he will most likely win.

As Sagan is currently best priced at 6/5 and Gilber at 9/2 I would not avoid backing either. Normally 30 riders or so are at the bottom of the Cauberg. There is no reason why are larger group of four or five riders will not come together over the top and contest the sprint for the win. If Sagan is not there due to being dropped or crashing then there are many other contenders for the win.

Simon Gerrans

He is currently third favourite in the betting markets. He has talking up his chances to the press and why not he has won three races already this year. His races wins usually come from following a group and winning the sprint which is real possibility. Only thing for me against him is price. While he is listed at 16/1 with some bookies this is for the outright win and each way bets are not available. If bookie offering each way on the race lists him at 16s I would back.

Bjorn Leukemans

Historically always around the top 10 in this race, the new route should help him. Normally he is out gunned on the climb but comes back on the flatter section like he did in Wednesday De Brabantse Pijl. The 1.8km flat run to the finish line from the top of the climb should hopefully give him enough recovery time for the sprint.

Edvald Boasson Hagen

Disappointed in Roubaix and Flanders so why could back him here? Clearly Team Sky feel he is capable of getting a result by putting him their strong team. His price is too large for me considering his performance at last year world’s on this very finish where he followed Gilbert’s attach well and held of a pursuing bunch for second place.

Rui Costa

The Movistar team is very strong with Valverde, Quintana and Amador in its ranks. Rui Costa is likely to play second fiddle to Valverde. However that should not discount him. He has ridden well this year and won last time out in the Klasika Primavera. A strong dark horse contender.

Gianni Meersmen

If the racing ahead of the Cauberg is not that aggressive then a rider like Meersmen could follow some of the attacks on the climb. If he gets to the line with a group he has a very strong kick.

Selections:

Leukemans EW 80/1 Stan James

Edvald Boasson Hagen EW 66/1 SkyBet

Rui Costa EW 80/1 Stan James

Meersmen EW 50/1 BoyleSports

Looking at the past winners of the race there are usually two outcomes to Paris-Roubaix. Either the strongest rider on the day wins (Museeuw, Boonen and Cancellara) or a strong less fancied rider manages to stay away (Knaven, O’Grady and Van Summeren). All the signs point to Cancellara romping to victory for a third time.

It is hard to argue against this logic considering his dominant win at Flanders and past performances in this race. The only way I can see him beaten is if the race follows a similar pattern to 2011 where large groups of riders went up the road and eventually Cancellara was left isolated by his teammates and unable to chase down Van Summeren in time. The onus will be on Omega Pharma-Quick-Step and Team Sky to send some of their strong riders up the rode early in the race. If Cancellara still has a couple of teammates for support after the infamous Arenberg section of cobbles then I can’t see anyone beating him.

Having said that I still think there are some value each way bets to be had for a top three finish. First here are some I will not be backing:

Hushovd – has not finished Flanders, Milan-San Remo or E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – Harelbeke this season.

Phinney – amazed he is going in as joint second favourite at 14/1. Will likely win this race in his career but not this early on.

Stannard and Thomas – both priced too short at 16s and 20s respectively. Expecting strong rides from them and Team Sky after their shocker in Flanders but not podiums.

Boasson Hagen – Flanders confirmed to me that he has not got the legs to match the best

Here are some that are worth considering:

Johan Vansummeren 66/1: The winner of the 2011 race. He really impressed me at Flanders with his positioning for the key periods of the race and looked stronger than I have seen him all year. He is clearly Garmin-Sharp’s team leader. Snap up those nice odds from Bet365

Stijn Vandenbergh 80/1: For me his is the best chance in the Omega Pharma team. Terpstra looked off the pace in the Flanders and historically Chavanel has never done well at Roubaix. Vandenbergh has shown well in many races this year especially the flatter semi-classics. His only drawback is that he can’t sprint so would only win solo or he is was up against Flecha.

Matthieu Ladagnous 100/1: 5^th in Flanders and 6^th in Gent – Wevelgem this year. Also was 12^th in this race last year. Only worry is that he is French. As they have not won a monument since Laurent Jalabert in the 1997 Tour of Lombardy. Drought

Sebastian Langeveld 80/1: If you watch Orica – Greenedge’s excellent backstage pass videos you will have noticed that he felt he had great legs at Flanders. He rode well there and was positioned well by his team. Stuart O’Grady will be key for him on Sunday as his experience in this race should put him prime position heading into the key cobbled sectors. Langeveld has been threatening a big result all year and I fancy Sunday he could get it.

Lars Boom 25/1: He is bullish about his chances and form. He has all the makings of a strong single day rider but has yet to pull off a big result yet. In stage races he has been more successful winning prologue and the GC three times. Came 12^th here in 2011 and 6^th last year so another improvement could see him on the podium.

Sebastian Turgot 66/1: I tipped him for Flanders last week at 200/1 as many of you must have done, as his price came in before the race. He rode well there finishing 8^th after attacking before Cancellara and Sagan made their move. He surprised many to come second in Roubaix last year. At 66/1 he is worth a nibble but maybe last week was his peak.

Key links

Start list

History of recent podium finishes

Oddscheckers compilation of odds

2011 Paris Roubaix video

For those who do not know about this historic race the best way to describe it is as the Grand National for Belgium. The race is a national instution and the country comes to a halt for it with many lining the roads or watching it on television. They will all have their favourite riders for the race ofthen a Belgium rider. As you can see from the table of past top three below the belgium riders tend to dominate this race.

One pattern that I have identified from looking at these results is form in build races. The Belgium semi classics of Dwars Door Vlaanderen (DDV) and E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – Harelbeke (E3) are often described as key build races to Flanders. If you study past results then this description is completely justified. Not since Steffen Wesemann’s win in 2004 has a rider won Flanders without finishing in the top ten on either DDV or E3 that year.  In fact in four of those years a rider has won both (Boonen three times and Cancellara once).

The bookies have this as a straight shot out between Sagan and Cancellara and it is hard to argue against it. Sagan is the slight favourite for them but for me Cancellara holds the upper hand due to experience. For that reason I have placed a small lay bet against Sagan on Betfair.

Flanders often has a way of springing a surprise winner. Think Nuyens in 2011 (yours truly backed him at 50/1 that year) or the Devolder double where he attacked from 30km+ both times. Therefore it is worth looking at the longer priced riders in the betting markets. Looking at the top ten’s from this year’s Dwars Door Vlaanderen  and E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – Harelbeke there are some really strong candidates for the surprise result.

Here are a few I will not be backing:

Daniel Oss – think he already has his result for the season at E3 and will mainly work for teammates but with Gilbert and Phinney pulling out he could be an interesting bet.

Geraint Thomas – British bookmakers have him patriotically too short at 20/1.

Chavanel – Best chance yet but too short at 12/1 .

Luca Paolini – historically the rider who wins Omloop Het Nieuwsblad never wins Flanders.

Boasson Hagen – 40/1 seems too short for a rider who still looks not at his best.

Mat Hayman – big odds at 125/1 and has been getting closer to a big classics result recently but fancy other riders in Team Sky ahead of him.

Here are some I fancy as good value:

Oscar Gatto 66/1:  Won at DDV and is the sole leader of his Vini Fantini team

Thomas Voeckler 80/1: A rider you may not associate with cobbles but rode strongly at Flanders last year to finish 8^th. Was 5^th in DDV this year and has the right type of climbing technique for the short climbs at Flanders.

Maxim Iglinsky 80/1: I backed him last year here and he failed to show that well but then proved his form to winner Liege-Bastogne-Leige. He comes in to this race in even better form that last with a 12^th in E3 and an 8^th in DDV. Only thing to count against him is his lack of a sprint. Normally comes last in a small front group of a race.

Ian Stannard 66/1: Has not suffered as much as Thomas with the tendency for British punters to shorten the odds of their riders by backing them. Stannard has shown himself in many attacks already this season. Previous doubts over his ability to follow attacks on climbs have been dispelled. Like Iglinsky he lacks a sprint but if the weather is cold he can excel.

Sebastian Langeveld 80/1: Another rider I back last year who failed by crashing out after hitting a roadside spectator. He has ridden into form this year culminating in 5^th at E3. Like many others he failed to finish Gent-Wevelgem. He is the stand out strong rider for Orica GreenEDGE so rider like Mouris and O’Grady should have him well postioned for key climbs.

Tom Boonen 16/1: My shortest priced pick. This is a very long price for a former three time winner of the race. Many say his form has not been great but on certain climbs he has looked as strong as ever. Another thing in his favour is that he is the only rider to win on this new Flanders route.

Two dark horses:

Jens Keukeleire 400/1: Who you may ask, a Belgium rider on the Orica team. He got in the key move at DDV this year and finished 7^th. He has been a rider who I have followed since his great 2010 form in some small semi classics for Cofidis. It would be a surprise but stranger things have happened.

Sebastien Turgot 200/1: Remember his second place at Paris-Roubaix last year? Turgot is a rider who flies under the radar but is worth considering each way. Strong form so far this year with 15^th in Milan-San Remo, 12^th in DDV and 10^th in E3. He was in the group behind the leading three in the race last year. Could spring a surpise and has a decent kick in a sprint finish.

The pundit’s picks:

Gatto 5 pts Each Way

Voeckler 5 pts Each Way

Stannard 5pts Each Way

Langeveld 5 pts Each Way

Boonen 10 pts Win

Turgot 2.5 pts Each Way

Full list of odds for Flanders on oddschecker

For the punter these races often prove fruitful. Unlike a sprint stage or a grand tour there is rarely a very short priced favourite. Once you narrow down the start list to the potential winners you can then trail through the bookies odds on Oddschecker and often find a rider very overpriced. My favourite punt of recent years is Nick Nuyens at 50/1 for the 2011 Tour of Flanders. Those odds were far too large considering his form which saw him win Dwars Door Vlaanderen in the build-up to the race.

Fruitful odds for these races are a common occurrence as bookies knowledge of riders is often behind the punter at this stage in the classic season. The only qualifier I would add to that is rider form is still hard to judge. For some riders they have hardly ridden or tested themselves fully in a race. Sep Vanmarcke won Het Nieuwsblad last year after just five race days beforehand in which his highest finish was 19^th place.

Omloop Het Nieuwsbald

A mini Tour of Flanders – this race has been won by many big classic stars. The forecast is set for a cold and windy race which should see the race pan out in the usual formula of riders being whittled down until a small group breaks away to contest the victory.

Riders such as Lars Boom, Roelandts and Pozzato lead the betting market due their recent good form. However if you look at the history of the race the winner does not necessarily have recent race wins going into the race. Instead it seems to be won by pedigree classic riders and in the last two years up and coming talented riders have prevailed. I have a shortlist of 25 riders who could win this race but with the odds the way they are three clearly stand out as great each way bets:

Bernie Eisel – 66/1 (Bet365 and SkyBet) Eisel has won a big classic before (Gent-Wevelgem in 2010). Back then in HTC colours he was given a free role to ride for himself in the classics and Sky are now going to support him in his attempt to win a big classic. Eisel will want to show that not going to Omega Pharma – QuickStep with Cavendish was not a mistake and winning races will do just that. He showed well in Qatar and is a very generous price at 66/1 especially with a strong Sky team to support him.

Luca Paolini – 50/1 (Ladbrokes) He has pedigree in the classics as his two second place finishes in Milan-San Remo (2003, 2006) and third in Flanders (2007) show. Back to back top five finishes in 2010 and 2011 here show he likes the race. With the Tour Down Under and Ruta del Sol in his legs he should be going well.

Daniel Oss – 80/1 (Ladbrokes) The BMC team is amazingly strong. As well as Oss they have Quinziato, Van Avermaet, Blythe, Phinney and Hushovd who all could get a result here. For me Oss stands out as a real dark horse. He has the make-up of a great classics rider but never focused on them during his time at Liquigas. Despite that his results improved each year. His 14 race days already this year will stand him in good stead and his third place on stage two of Tour du Haut Var to Lars Boom shows the potential is there.

Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne

A flatter course than Het Nieuwsblad this race has ended in a big bunch sprint in the last couple of years. If it rains it can become an epic battle as in 2010 when just 26 riders finished in freezing temperatures.

The recent reports that the climbs could be taken out due snow has put a spanner in the works. Only Bet365 have a market up at the moment and like many they see it as a sprint off between Greipel and Cavendish. I am going to hold off on any bets till after Saturday’s race. Look out for my tips on twitter. It is worth nothing that riders like Cavendish, Greipel, Henderson, Farrar, Howard, Demare and Veelers are only racing on Sunday so look out for them if it does come down to a sprint.

For the people not betting on these two races and saving their pennies for the major classics these races are still important. Try and watch them to spot riders in good form and putting in the attacks and testing their legs ahead of the big ones.  

Here are my betting selections for the race:

Lay Gesink and Van den Broeck for the top 6 (Betfair)

Initially this bet may seem to be based on bitterness as I backed both riders to come in the top three at the Tour de France and they both did not. There is more behind this bet. A little bit of research on the team websites and their press releases about Vuelta team reveals both riders are not going for the overall win. Van den Broeck has been instructed to focus on stage wins rather than the overall as they don’t think he is physically up for the challenge after his exertions at the Tour de France.

Gesink goes into the race as co-leader of the Rabobank cycling team with Bauke Mollema. But the Team DS Adri van Houwelingen has said that he thinks Mollema has a better chance. So Gesink is likely to have to sacrifice his own chances for the overall to work for Mollema.

Top 10 Overall Classifications

This year’s Vuelta is wide open in the lower half of the top 10 in the GC. Froome and Contador are likely to take the top two spots while behind them riders like Rodriguez, Cobo, Mollema and De Gendt will challenge. Outside of that there is plenty of potential for some surprising names coming in the top 10 at the end of the three weeks. Again looking at the team websites you are able to tell who is going to be the team leader and therefore who will have the full support of the team behind him.

Eros Capecchi is going to be the leader of Liquigas Cannondale for this race. He rode well in the recent Vuelta a Burgos to finish 8^th overall. He has never gone into a grand tour as the team leader but at 8/1 with SkyBet I seem him as a good value bet.

Dario Cataldo is listed on the Omega Pharma – QuickStep team as one of the three potential team leaders along with Kevin De Weert and Serge Pauwels. De Weert has not had good  form recently while Pauwels has never proven himself over three weeks in a grand tour. Cataldo has coming just 12^th in the last two editions of the Giro. He came 4^th on the mountain stage of the recent Tour de L’Ain. Now is his chance to break into the top 10 in grand tour, he is priced at 14/1 with Bet365

Cameron Meyer is a rider who not many will associate with an assault on the top 10 in a grand tour. Orica-Greenedge are not talking up his abilities yet but he has the power and recovery ability to be moulded into the Wiggins style of Grand Tour rider. I see him has becoming the main Australian grand tour contender in the next couple of years. Neil Stephens (the team DS for the Vuelta) has said that Meyer is the only rider in their squad who is going into the race with any GC aims. There were signs earlier in the year at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour of California that Meyer is developing as a climber. There is a reason why Meyer pulled out of the Australian Olympic track team and I think we could see why on the roads of Spain. At 40/1 he is my big otuside bet of the race.

Another rider who is just as unproven in Grand Tours is Andrew Talansky. At 4/1 with Sportingbet many may feel he is far too short. I still see it as a value bet, largely because the Garmin-Sharp team have given him the leadership of the team. He has put him some good performances this year coming second to Wiggins in the Tour de Romandie and more recently win

Richard Moore (The Scotsman)

Dan Martin for king of the mountains. Why not? I think he can “do a Robert Millar”, win a mountain stage and KoM, thus becoming only the second English speaker ever to win it, and the first since 84…

Jerome Coppell to finish top 6. 6th, to be precise. He’s a good rider, rode a good Tour last year and is having a good season. So: pretty good.

Andy McGrath (Cycle Sport)

Rui Costa at 500-1 is good for a few quid. Just in case. That’s my winter booze budget sorted if he wins (I drink a lot).

Peter Velits is a steal at 150-1. This someone who finished on the Vuelta podium, chiefly through riding a strong time-trial and is physiologically coming into his prime. He has shrugged off the injury problems of 2011 and won a tough stage race this year. While it all depends how old Levi is going, that late inclusion of twin, confusingly-identical brother Martin can only be good news for that Slovakian Beach Boy lookalike.

I think Dan Martin too, but given his poor time-trialling, I fear he might be put to work shepherding Tom Danielson in the mountains to a revelatory eighth place finish.

Vanendert a handy bet for King of the Mountains, I reckon.

Daniel Friebe (Various)

Winning margin of more than two minutes is 5-1 with sportingbet. These are crazy odds. Tours won by less than two minutes are in the minority in 110 years of Tour history.

The race for yellow should be dominated by a tactical battle between Evans and Wiggins. Behind them the field is incredibly closely matched on paper. SkyBet are offering a market on betting without Wiggins and Evans. There is some great value there if you agree with my assessment of the two riders below.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck without Wiggins and Evans 6/1 (SkyBet)

This rider really sprung to my attention in 2010 when he finished 4^th in the Tour de France. Last year I expected him to do well at the Tour but he was a victim of a crash. He failed to recover from that crash as well as Wiggins and battle to 8^th at the Vuelta at the end of season. This year he has had a good build up placing well in key build up races; Volta a Catalunya (3^rd), Vuelta al Pais Vasco (12^th) and Criterium du Dauphine (5^th).

I expect him to one of the strongest climbers in the race and probably one of the few who could attack Evans and Wiggins. On top of that he has improved his time trialling a lot. In last year’s 47km TT at the Vuelta he lost 3’56 to the winner Martin and 3’03 to Wiggins. This year, at the Dauphine’s 53km time trial he finished 2’12 down on the winner Wiggins. He is strong candidate for third place on the podium on my eyes

Robert Gesink without Wiggins and Evans 9/1 (SkyBet)

For me Gesink is the only other rider who can TT and climb at a level close to Wiggins and Evans. Like Van den Broeck I expected great things in last year’s Tour de France. Gesink crashed as well, but was able to carry on but his injuries restricted his movement on the bike and he struggled to 32^nd overall. He has finished in the top 10 of Grand Tours three times including 6^th in the 2010 Tour de France. The time is now for him to step up a level and get a podium finish.

His development as rider suggests that he could. He is a strong TT rider: 4^th in the 29.7km TT at the Tour of California and 5^th in the 34.3km TT at the Tour de Suisse this year. He rode away from the filed impressively on the Mount Baldy stage of the Tour of California. At the Tour de Suisse he did not set the world alight but still rode well enough to finish fourth. For me he is the only rider who can get close to Wiggins or Evans. He should also have two team mates at in the mountains in the form of Mollema and Kruijswijk to assist him. At 9/1 I think he is great value.

Rein Taaramae to win the Young rider classifications 5 (Unibet)

The young rider classification is often a afterthought for most teams.  In this market there are only really only a couple of contenders as evidenced by the fact that only four riders are under 10/1 for it. Kruijswijk is listed as the favourite but he will worked for his team leader Gesink and that will be his priority over the white jersey. The same can be said for Teejay Van Garderen at BMC. That just leaves Wout Poels and Taaramae. Poels is a strong rider and could do a good ride but his team manager has come out and said that they are not focusing on jersey but individual stages.

That leaves us with Taaramae who is the sole leader of the team at Cofidis. All the team will work for him to get as higher place on GC as possible. For that reason he seems the most sensible choice for me.

Thibaut Pinot stage wins over 0.5 6 (Sportingbet)

It gets quite depressing when the riders get younger than you. This Frenchman has been bubbling under the scene for a while. I thing he has the potential to put in a performance similar to what Pierre Rolland did last year. The top 10 is probably a bit unrealistic but a stage win is a better bet. 

He has ridden strongly this year, especially at the Tour de Suisse. In 2011 he won six times and came 2^nd on stage 7 of the Dauphine which finished La Toussuire. That climb has a mountain top finish on stage 11 and Pinot could well surprise a few. If not there are plenty of other stages that suit his abilities. 

Instead what I will do is give my opinions on the riders leading the betting for the overall and pick out a few other value bets in other markets.

What I will say about this race is that everything is pointing to a very close race that could go down to the final stage in Milan on Sunday 27 May. The route is very varied offering plenty for all types of riders. Although some say there are lots of mountain top finishes I think only the long climbs of Cervinia (Stage 14) and the Stelvio (Stage 20) will really shake things up. The time trial stages of 4 and 21 will be crucial. Both are over 30km and a rider could lose just as much time on these as on a mountain.

It is also important to remember the old maxim that it is the riders that make the racing hard not the route. Stages 8,10,12 and 17 to me look like ones that could really spring some surprises if there is a lot of attacking racing.

Who is going to win?

Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD)

Has been the favourite in the betting since the market opened; currently he is 11/4. He won last year’s race (by default –thanks Alberto) but I do not fancy him for the win.

His form this year is solid but unremarkable. 8th overall at Pais Vasco and 7th Tirreno-Adriatico have are good performances. But when you compare it to his build up to the 2011 Giro it looks average as last year Scarponi won the Volta a Catalunya and Giro del Trentino. He also has not won in 2012 whereas in 2011 he won three times. Why is this important? Well the Giro (unlike the Tour) has There are time bonuses available on all the road stages, ie not the prologue, team time trial or the final time trial stage. 20 seconds for the winner, 12 seconds for second place and eight seconds for third place.

His Lampre team are strong for the mountains but not for the team time trial. He will hold his own against most in the final stage time trial but I think he may just lack that final punch on the road to win stages and the race. But I do expect to see him on the podium just not the top of it.

Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Cannondale)

Surprisingly Basso is listed as clear second favourite at best odds of 9/2. This is far too short a price. He may be a former winner but his form this season is shocking. He has come 22^nd in Giro del Trentino and 33^rd in the Tour of Romandie and that is it. I do not buy his team mate Nibali telling Radio Sportiva that he has improved his condition greatly in training camp in April.

The only thing in his favour is the route does along a certain amount riding into top form as the hills do not really come until stages 6 and 7. Personally I would prefer to see Basso fall by the wayside and the talented Polish climber Sylvester Szmyd given free rein to ride for himself.

Roman Kreuziger (Astana)

I have seen Kreuziger tipped widely for this race on my websites by journalists and fans. Initially I was sceptical about as Kreuziger’s best finish in a grand tour is 5^th in last year’s Giro. Although it is worth remembering he has come in the top 12 of the Tour de France three times.

His form this year points to some improvements in his climbing and time trailing. At Tirreno-Adriatico on the only mountain top finish he climbed the best I have ever seen finishing second behind Nibali. He dropped other Giro contenders Scarponi, Pozzovivo and Rodriguez in the process. His time trial at Romandie saw him finish 5^th which was the highest placing for any rider tackling Giro, as was his position of 6^th overall.

His team is very strong with support in the mountains coming from Tiralongo, Seeldrayers, Petrov and Kangert. The are some weaknesses; they may not be that strong in the team time trial and Kreuziger is inexperienced at being in the top three at the business end of a grand tour. But as I think he is the best time trialists in the group of favourites I am backing him for the win.

Joes Rujano (Androni Giocattoli)

Some of you may be asking who, this was the little Venezuelan climber who in last year’s race was the only person able to stay with or beat Contador. He came 6^th overall. I expect him to come somewhere similar again this year. Sure to win at least one mountain top stage but his time trailing will let him down. He lost 2’25 in last year’s final day time trial which was shorter than this years.

Frank Schleck (RadioShack-Nissan)

Frank has been parachuted in last minute to the RadioShack team to replace Jakob Fuglsang. Nobody can really accurately predict how well Frank will ride at the Giro as he has raced only a small amount this year. Johan Bruyneel is quite clearly trying to repeat his feat of 2008 when he selected Contador (for Astana) to ride the Giro with just one week’s notice. Contador when on to win the race by just under two minutes from Riccardo Ricco!

But if closely compare Contador’s racing that year he was already riding at a much higher level having won Vuelta a Castilla y Leon and Vuelta al Pais Vasco.  Whereas Schleck’s best result this year is 7^th at the Vuelta a Andalucia. Not only is he short of racing but he still is not a great time trialists so will struggle there. I expect a top 10 finish and a stage win but not a first grand tour win for Frank.

Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha)

Rodriguez is one of the most talented riders in the peloton and is once again having a great season. However I just think he is not a complete enough rider to win a grand tour. His speciality is shorter punchy climbs where is difficult to beat. But on longer climbs and time trials he is often found out a one point in a grand tour.

His ride in last year’s Giro was his best ride ever in a grand tour and saw him come fourth. But with the route this year I doubt he will be able to better that.

Domenico Pozzovivo (Colnago –CSF Inox)

He set cycling fans tongues wagging with his explosive win on the very steep climb on Punta Veleno on stage 3 of the Giro del Trentino. Many have since gone on to state that he can be a contender in this year’s Giro. I would be cautious in backing him though as he has only finished this race twice and the last time was in 2008.

He is another rider who should pick up a stage win and come in the top ten but not much more than that.

Damiano Cunego (Lampre-ISD)

Surprisingly listed by some bookies as large as 20/1 for the race.  He officially goes into the race as co-leader of his team with Scarponi. How that dynamic works will be one of the most interesting elements of the race.

They have only raced once this year at the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and Cunego finished 4^th while Scarponi was 20 seconds back in 8^th. Looking at race in more detail it was Scarponi who climbed marginally better but Cunego put 30 seconds into him in the 18.9km final time trial. Who knows what will happen in this race. I am tempted to back Cunego due to large odds.

John Gadret (AG2R La Mondiale)

Surprised many to come third here last year but I can’t see  a repeat of that performance due to his poor form so far this year a lack skill on the TT bike. He could go down in history as one hit podium grand tour rider like Pietro Caucchioli.

My Bets

Kreuziger to win the race at 11/1 Bodog (Odds have shortened since I backed him)

Top 10 finish

Cunego 17/10 with SportingBet. Well placed to come top 10 and largest odds of those above make it a good price.

Uran 5/2 with Sporting Bet. Team Sky’s leader for the race. Riding well this year with a 5^th at Catalunya. His time to finish in a Grand Tour top 10 has come.

 Dupont 9/2 with Blue Square. Good odds for someone who came 11^th last year. This he did helping team leader Gadret to a third place. Now Gadret is in worse form he could be given opportunities to shine.

Stage wins

There a couple of riders that I fancy are in great form this year and will pick up a stage win. They are Alessandro Ballan (100/30), Thomas De Gendt (4/1) and Gianni Meersman (2/1). These prices are all available on SportingBet along with a lot of other riders.

The first day prologue is also an interesting bet. There is a lot of money on Geraint Thomas, Taylor Phinney and Alex Rasmussen. I however see Gustav Larsson as a great value outsider at 16/1 with Stan James as he won a similar prologue at Paris-Nice this year.

Footnote

Two riders I am not backing financially but I hope will perform are Marco Pinotti and Cameron Meyer. Pinotti has come in the top 10 before and BMC have made them their leader for this race. He has struggled to repeat his previous climbing form this year but it would be great to see one of cycling strongest anti doping campaigners at the front in the mountains.

Cameron Meyer is huge talent and could well prove in this race that he can win a grand tour. I am not expecting him to finish high up but if he shows that he can be consistent in the mountains for a couple of days then the rest of the cycling world should take not. This is because he has a similar engine as Wiggins but is much lighter. GreenEDGE are grooming him as there long term grand tour contender. His 10^th overall at Tirreno showed his focus on the road ahead of the track and 2012 Olympics is beginning to dividends already.

There is a constant debate on what truly signifies the start of the cycling season. The Tour Down Under? Omloop Het Nieuwsblad? Paris-Nice? While these have been interesting to watch this year no rider builds their season around them. That can be said of this Saturday’s edition of Milan-San Remo. It did not take long for Mark Cavendish to say that it was major goal of his season after winning the worlds championships. What makes this race so special? Quite simply it is the perfectly poised race between the sprinters and attacking riders. Last year’s race was the perfect example of that.

Some key links to look at before betting

The official start list is here

The profile of the race is here

All the odds the bookmakers are offering are here

Weather forecast for Saturday is here (rain likely)

The past results of the race.

The contenders

It is a hard race to call but we do have the advantage of almost two months worth of racing to judge riders form. Here is a look at some of the leaders in the betting market (in order of shortest price):

Mark Cavendish: The strong favorite and former winner of this race has a very strong team. Four of HTC team that lead him to victory in 2009 are in the line up. As our three other strong workers in the form of Hayman, Hunt and Thomas. Cavendish has four wins already this year and in those wins he has eased to victory in the sprints. There is no doubt in my mind that if he gets over the Poggio in the lead group he will win. I have doubts however about his climbing form. He has claimed a lot this season that he is great shape for this time of year compared to the last two years. This has not translated into results on tougher stages so far this season. So either he is bluffing or does not have form, you decide. Some have backed some have layed him. We will find out on Saturday which is the wiser option.

Peter Sagan: Many are saying that Sagan is unproven under this sort of distance. I disagree. He rode strongly last year, making the split early on and just losing contact on the Poggio and ending up 17th. That was a very impressive debut performance in the race. His form this year is very encouraging. Most impressive was his win on stage four of Tirreno-Adriatico. There he won an incredibly tough stage after just under seven and half hours in the saddle. His team is strong and if Nibali covers the moves on the Poggio and it ends up in a sprint and Cavendish is not there I fancy Sagan to win.

Fabian Cancellara: A lot of people forget that Cancellara is actually a good sprinter. He came second here last year and sprinted to fourth at the Worlds last year. The common perception that he has to attack on the Poggio and win the race alone This is not true, he can win from a smaller group if enough top quality sprinters have been dropped. He clearly has great form when you take into account his performance in winning Strade Bianche. And the fact he won the closing 9.4km time trial stage at Tirreno-Adriatico by an impressive margin of 12 seconds, he has to be a strong favourite. His team is able to provide him good support here in the form of Gallopin, Bennati, Irizar and Roulston. I am happy that I managed to back him at 16/1 earlier in the week. He is now into 8/1 but I think that is still good value for money.

Edvald Boasson Hagen: Team Sky’s back up plan to Mark Cavendish. He has the attributes to get a result in the race. But he has never finished better than 30th in this race. He has ridden well this year; climbing well when needed to and still proving to be a fast finisher on stage 3 of Tirreno. I am not keen on him here.

Oscar Freire: Three time winner here and often pulls out a result when you least expect it. When I saw him finish second to Cavendish on stage 2 of Tirreno I took note. When @TourDeJose said that she was going to back him I checked his odds and was extremely surprised that he was 25/1. Who could not back him at that price? He has not shortened to 16/1 but I would still back him.

Tom Boonen: He has shown strong form in the sprints and the cobbled roads already this year. Boonen has never won this race but finished on the podium twice in 2010 and 2007. Both times he was beaten by Oscar Freire. I think Tom is just not canny enough of a rider (like Freire is) to win this race. I see him making a small mistake that will blow his chances.

Andre Griepel: The only man who can really beat Cavendish in top form in a heads up sprint. I struggle to see him getting over the Poggio with the front group.

Phillipe Gilbert: His form suggests that he is struggling to regain his stunning shape of last year. He way well have the legs to stay in the front select group but I can’t see him attacking and holding off people to win alone nor win a sprint in a group larger than one. BMC should work for Van Avermaet and attack and attack on all the climbs in the last 30kms.

Matt Goss: For me he has no hope in retaining his title. His form coming into this race last year was a lot more impressive; he had won a stage at the Tour Down Under, Oman and Paris-Nice. He has only really contested one sprint so far this year finishing sixth on stage three of Tirreno. It will be interesting to see how GreenEDGE approach their debut in a monument.

Heinrich Haussler: I really like the Garmin-Barracuda line up for this race, it has a really nice mix of riders. Haussler is one heck of a rider but has struggled to match his stunning year of 2009 where he was one of the most consistent (and unlucky riders) in the classics and won an epic Tour de France stage. This year there is a lot of talk from him (and from his team) about being back to his best. He has not won a sprint this year but has won bunch gallops behind groups up the road in Paris-Nice and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. This may be all he can hope for on Saturday.

Greg Van Avermaet: I backed him last year at 40/1 and at one point it looked like he would win when he attacked at the Poggio. In hindsight he went to early but he clearly had the form. He should have learnt from that and he comes into this race with similar respectable form as he had last year. With Hushovd no longer starting he should go in as co-leader with Gilbert and I see him as the stonger of the two. Worth a punt at 80/1

Sascha Modolo: Surprised many in 2010 when as a neo-pro he finished 4th here. 29th last year so this is clearly a race he likes. Quiet this year but that is due to the smaller amount of races his team rides. The majority of them will be riding for him and he could spring a surprise again. At 66/1 it is worth a flutter each way.

Long Shots: Danielle Bennati has shown good form this year but may well have to sacrifice his chances for his team mate Cancellara. Matti Breschel showed a slight return to form at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad but did not contest any sprints at Tirreno. Saving himself or did not have the legs? Vincenzo Nibali has said he will attack but it would be an incredible ride if won it. Look at the past winners of the race, no rider who has recently won it fit the Nibali mold.

My selections (Prices correct as of 15th March at 11pm)

Favourites

Peter Sagan at 7/1 10 points for the win only (Stan James)

Fabian Cancellara 8/1 5 points each way (BetVictor, Ladbrokes and Sporting Bet) Note: I got him at 16/1 earlier in the week but would still back him at 8s or less.

Oscar Freire 16/1 5 points each way (Stan James) Another one I got at better odds earlier in the week. I would still back him at any thing more than 10/1.

Long shots

Sascha Modolo 66/1 5 points each way

Van Avermaet 80/1 5 points each way

Both backed with Boylesports as they are paying our first four places for 1/5 of the odds.

The amount of riders each nation has, is dependent upon their performance on the road by that nation in the current season. The full UCI document outlying all the qualification system for the worlds can be viewed here. The most important point is the first rule:

“The 10 first countries in UCI WorldTour classification by nation on 15 August 2011:

each country may enter 14 riders, with 9 to start. However, a nation with fewer than 9

riders classified in the individual UCI WorldTour ranking on 15 August 2011 shall start

the number of riders that are classified. A nation with fewer than 6 riders classified in

the UCI WorldTour ranking will, nonetheless, start 6 rider”

This leave just two World Tour races left, Tour of Poland & the Eneco Tour, before the 15 August deadline.  At this moment Great Britain (GB) sit comfortably inside the top 10 in 9th place. They are unlikely to drop out of the top 10 unless Swiss and French riders put some remarkable performances in Poland and Eneco.  So GB could have nine riders on the start line.

But there is one small problem. GB only has five riders classified in the World Tour rankings as of the 1^st of August, these being Wiggins, Cavendish, Swift, Millar & Thomas.  This number will go up to seven at the time of writing as Kennaugh picked on one UCI World Tour point with his 5^th place on stage five of the Tour of Poland as did Adam Blythe by finishing 5^th on stage 3. This means GB will have seven riders on the start line not nine.

For GB to qualify more riders they need riders not currently classified in the World Tour rankings to pick up points in last few days of the Tour of Poland or at the Eneco Tour. To do this they need to finish in the top 10 overall or in the top 5 of any stage. At the Tour of Poland Steve Cummings, Chris Froome, Ian Stannard are all riding for Team Sky. At the moment Cummings is in 17^th place but is only 26 seconds behind the leader and more importantly on the same time as 8^th place. The Tour of Poland is often decided by a matter of seconds so Cummings will need to go on the attack today (Friday) to gain some crucial seconds to propel himself into the top 10 and the World Tour points area.

Tom Simpson winning the Worlds in 1965

The other possibility is for GB to pick up more points at the Eneco Tour. Team Sky’s team for that race currently features two GB riders (Swift and Thomas) who are already classified on the World Tour rankings. Team Sky could change their line up and put in other riders from GB who are not on the World Tour rankings. I doubt they will do this. I spoke to Rod Ellingworth on the final day of the Tour and he said that he was aiming for a seven man team at that stage. His ambitions may change after Blythe and Kennaugh’s results in Poland. Or instead of the onus being on Sky to pick up points other GB riders such as Dan Lloyd or Roger Hammond could try and pick up points.

Garmin-Cervelo has not confirmed their line-up for that race yet but it will be interesting to see if either of them features in it. If they did pick any points they would surely then earn a place in the team for the worlds which for many British riders is a big aim. Who would not want to be part of that winning team delivering Cavendish to the line? He could become the first Britain to win the World Road Race Championship since Tom Simpson did in 1965.