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2013 Tour de France shortlist and bets

With Froome looked good to win Yellow, Green to be tight between Cav and Sagan there is not a lot of value around in the main markets. You have to look further afield to find some good value punts. Bookies are now offering all manner of betting markets on the race. My personal favourite has to be SportingBet’s market on the rider to finish last. Below is a shortlist of some betting selections I have drawn up with reasoning below each one. At the bottom I have listed which ones I have actually backed. I hope they have provided some food for thought.

Shortlist

Kwiatkowski Young rider classification – back to lay Betfair

The Young rider classification is an old favourite of mine to find some value of this race. Only two bookies are offering each way bets (1/3 for a top two finish). Therefore I am resorting to my old favourite bet of backing a rider to then lay him later on. Kwiatkowski the young Polish rider has really impressed this year and could be propelled into white after the team time trial on Stage four.

Dani Moreno 125/1 Froome King of the Mountains classification 12/1 both Bet365

Moreno is in cracking form  and is likely to be given a free reign from his team. Froome could well pick up this jersey if he dominates the race as many expect him to.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck 100/1 EW winner Bet365

Not had great form this year but has been building slowly to this race. Proved two years ago he can climb with the best and is a very large price. He will not win but could finish in the top three.

Dani Navarro top ten 7/2 BetVictor

The Spaniard has shown this season that he the strongest climber in the Cofidis starting line-up. Therefore Coppel and Taaramae should provide so strong support for him.

Igor Anton top ten 14/1 BetVictor

A big price for a rider who has been up there in Grand Tours before.

Pinot top 6 7/2 Bwin/Betfair

Has the potential to improve on last year’s performance. Showed well at the Tour de Suisse and I am a big fan of the new FDJ blue kit.

Talansky top 6 6/1 Bwin/Betfair

Garmin-Sharp have a habit of getting a rider in the top 6 and often it can be a surprise. It is Talansky time to spring that surprise as I expect Dan Martin to target stage wins and maybe the King of the Mountain jersey.

Stage wins over +0.5:
Bardet 6/1 (SportingBet), Tony Gallopin 5/1 (Bet365), Daniel Navarro 6/1 (SportingBet), Jens Voigt 4/1 (Bet356 and Sportingbet)

The above riders all have the talent to win a stage of the race and are at a good price. The Voigt selection is admittedly head over heart.

Mark Cavendish exactly 6 stage wins 9/2 (PaddyPower)

There looks to be 8 stages that could/should end in a sprint. Cav is in cracking form but I expect a couple to get away from him via a break or by Greipel or Kittel beating him once. Six it is.

Paddy Power match bets

This bookmaker has got some great overall match bets between riders. Backing any rider against Andy Schleck looks immediately appealing.

 Bets:

Kwiatkowski Young rider classification – back to lay Betfair

Jurgen Van Den Broeck 100/1 EW winner Bet365

Dani Moreno 125/1 Froome King of the Mountains classification 12/1 both Bet365

Dani Navarro top ten 7/2 BetVictor

Talansky top 6 6/1 Bwin/Betfair

Stage wins over +0.5: Bardet 6/1 (SportingBet), Tony Gallopin 5/1 (Bet365)

Mark Cavendish exactly 6 stage wins 9/2 (PaddyPower)

 

 

Vuelta a España Betting selections

The third and final grand tour gets underway this weekend. Rather than writing a preview of the race I will point you in the direction of the Inner Rings comprehensive one. Also I have written a preview for Unibet which you can read here.

Here are my betting selections for the race:

Lay Gesink and Van den Broeck for the top 6 (Betfair)

Initially this bet may seem to be based on bitterness as I backed both riders to come in the top three at the Tour de France and they both did not. There is more behind this bet. A little bit of research on the team websites and their press releases about Vuelta team reveals both riders are not going for the overall win. Van den Broeck has been instructed to focus on stage wins rather than the overall as they don’t think he is physically up for the challenge after his exertions at the Tour de France.

Gesink goes into the race as co-leader of the Rabobank cycling team with Bauke Mollema. But the Team DS Adri van Houwelingen has said that he thinks Mollema has a better chance. So Gesink is likely to have to sacrifice his own chances for the overall to work for Mollema.

Top 10 Overall Classifications

This year’s Vuelta is wide open in the lower half of the top 10 in the GC. Froome and Contador are likely to take the top two spots while behind them riders like Rodriguez, Cobo, Mollema and De Gendt will challenge. Outside of that there is plenty of potential for some surprising names coming in the top 10 at the end of the three weeks. Again looking at the team websites you are able to tell who is going to be the team leader and therefore who will have the full support of the team behind him.

Eros Capecchi is going to be the leader of Liquigas Cannondale for this race. He rode well in the recent Vuelta a Burgos to finish 8th overall. He has never gone into a grand tour as the team leader but at 8/1 with SkyBet I seem him as a good value bet.

Dario Cataldo is listed on the Omega Pharma – QuickStep team as one of the three potential team leaders along with Kevin De Weert and Serge Pauwels. De Weert has not had good  form recently while Pauwels has never proven himself over three weeks in a grand tour. Cataldo has coming just 12th in the last two editions of the Giro. He came 4th on the mountain stage of the recent Tour de L’Ain. Now is his chance to break into the top 10 in grand tour, he is priced at 14/1 with Bet365

Cameron Meyer is a rider who not many will associate with an assault on the top 10 in a grand tour. Orica-Greenedge are not talking up his abilities yet but he has the power and recovery ability to be moulded into the Wiggins style of Grand Tour rider. I see him has becoming the main Australian grand tour contender in the next couple of years. Neil Stephens (the team DS for the Vuelta) has said that Meyer is the only rider in their squad who is going into the race with any GC aims. There were signs earlier in the year at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour of California that Meyer is developing as a climber. There is a reason why Meyer pulled out of the Australian Olympic track team and I think we could see why on the roads of Spain. At 40/1 he is my big otuside bet of the race.

Another rider who is just as unproven in Grand Tours is Andrew Talansky. At 4/1 with Sportingbet many may feel he is far too short. I still see it as a value bet, largely because the Garmin-Sharp team have given him the leadership of the team. He has put him some good performances this year coming second to Wiggins in the Tour de Romandie and more recently win

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