Author Archives: pelotonpundit

2013 Tour de France shortlist and bets

With Froome looked good to win Yellow, Green to be tight between Cav and Sagan there is not a lot of value around in the main markets. You have to look further afield to find some good value punts. Bookies are now offering all manner of betting markets on the race. My personal favourite has to be SportingBet’s market on the rider to finish last. Below is a shortlist of some betting selections I have drawn up with reasoning below each one. At the bottom I have listed which ones I have actually backed. I hope they have provided some food for thought.

Shortlist

Kwiatkowski Young rider classification – back to lay Betfair

The Young rider classification is an old favourite of mine to find some value of this race. Only two bookies are offering each way bets (1/3 for a top two finish). Therefore I am resorting to my old favourite bet of backing a rider to then lay him later on. Kwiatkowski the young Polish rider has really impressed this year and could be propelled into white after the team time trial on Stage four.

Dani Moreno 125/1 Froome King of the Mountains classification 12/1 both Bet365

Moreno is in cracking form  and is likely to be given a free reign from his team. Froome could well pick up this jersey if he dominates the race as many expect him to.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck 100/1 EW winner Bet365

Not had great form this year but has been building slowly to this race. Proved two years ago he can climb with the best and is a very large price. He will not win but could finish in the top three.

Dani Navarro top ten 7/2 BetVictor

The Spaniard has shown this season that he the strongest climber in the Cofidis starting line-up. Therefore Coppel and Taaramae should provide so strong support for him.

Igor Anton top ten 14/1 BetVictor

A big price for a rider who has been up there in Grand Tours before.

Pinot top 6 7/2 Bwin/Betfair

Has the potential to improve on last year’s performance. Showed well at the Tour de Suisse and I am a big fan of the new FDJ blue kit.

Talansky top 6 6/1 Bwin/Betfair

Garmin-Sharp have a habit of getting a rider in the top 6 and often it can be a surprise. It is Talansky time to spring that surprise as I expect Dan Martin to target stage wins and maybe the King of the Mountain jersey.

Stage wins over +0.5:
Bardet 6/1 (SportingBet), Tony Gallopin 5/1 (Bet365), Daniel Navarro 6/1 (SportingBet), Jens Voigt 4/1 (Bet356 and Sportingbet)

The above riders all have the talent to win a stage of the race and are at a good price. The Voigt selection is admittedly head over heart.

Mark Cavendish exactly 6 stage wins 9/2 (PaddyPower)

There looks to be 8 stages that could/should end in a sprint. Cav is in cracking form but I expect a couple to get away from him via a break or by Greipel or Kittel beating him once. Six it is.

Paddy Power match bets

This bookmaker has got some great overall match bets between riders. Backing any rider against Andy Schleck looks immediately appealing.

 Bets:

Kwiatkowski Young rider classification – back to lay Betfair

Jurgen Van Den Broeck 100/1 EW winner Bet365

Dani Moreno 125/1 Froome King of the Mountains classification 12/1 both Bet365

Dani Navarro top ten 7/2 BetVictor

Talansky top 6 6/1 Bwin/Betfair

Stage wins over +0.5: Bardet 6/1 (SportingBet), Tony Gallopin 5/1 (Bet365)

Mark Cavendish exactly 6 stage wins 9/2 (PaddyPower)

 

 

Amstel Gold Betting Preview

Rushed for time this week so those after a general overview of the race should take a look at RCUK’s preview. The key thing to bear in mind in is that the finale has changed. Instead of finishing on top of the Cauberg the race will finish 1.8km further down the road. This should see a more dynamic race rather than the sprint we have seen up the Cauberg in the last three years.

As a result of this change a key indicator to look is last year’s men world’s championship. It is worth watching Philippe Gilbert’s amazing attack again.  All the signs point towards an epic battle between Peter Sagan and Gilbert up the Caubery. Gilbert knows he can’t beat him in a sprint as Wednseday’s finish at De Brabantse Pijl proved. Therefore his focus will be on trying to shed Sagan on the climb while Sagan knows if he can follow the Gilbert attack then he will most likely win.

As Sagan is currently best priced at 6/5 and Gilber at 9/2 I would not avoid backing either. Normally 30 riders or so are at the bottom of the Cauberg. There is no reason why are larger group of four or five riders will not come together over the top and contest the sprint for the win. If Sagan is not there due to being dropped or crashing then there are many other contenders for the win.

Simon Gerrans

He is currently third favourite in the betting markets. He has talking up his chances to the press and why not he has won three races already this year. His races wins usually come from following a group and winning the sprint which is real possibility. Only thing for me against him is price. While he is listed at 16/1 with some bookies this is for the outright win and each way bets are not available. If bookie offering each way on the race lists him at 16s I would back.

Bjorn Leukemans

Historically always around the top 10 in this race, the new route should help him. Normally he is out gunned on the climb but comes back on the flatter section like he did in Wednesday De Brabantse Pijl. The 1.8km flat run to the finish line from the top of the climb should hopefully give him enough recovery time for the sprint.

Edvald Boasson Hagen

Disappointed in Roubaix and Flanders so why could back him here? Clearly Team Sky feel he is capable of getting a result by putting him their strong team. His price is too large for me considering his performance at last year world’s on this very finish where he followed Gilbert’s attach well and held of a pursuing bunch for second place.

Rui Costa

The Movistar team is very strong with Valverde, Quintana and Amador in its ranks. Rui Costa is likely to play second fiddle to Valverde. However that should not discount him. He has ridden well this year and won last time out in the Klasika Primavera. A strong dark horse contender.

Gianni Meersmen

If the racing ahead of the Cauberg is not that aggressive then a rider like Meersmen could follow some of the attacks on the climb. If he gets to the line with a group he has a very strong kick.

Selections:

Leukemans EW 80/1 Stan James

Edvald Boasson Hagen EW 66/1 SkyBet

Rui Costa EW 80/1 Stan James

Meersmen EW 50/1 BoyleSports

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