Paris-Roubaix betting tips

Have had a quick look at Oddschecker I have decided that the time to bet on Roubaix is sooner rather than later. This is to take advantage of some nicely priced outsiders whose odds may not stay that large in the days leading into Sunday’s race.

paris-roubaix

Looking at the past winners of the race there are usually two outcomes to Paris-Roubaix. Either the strongest rider on the day wins (Museeuw, Boonen and Cancellara) or a strong less fancied rider manages to stay away (Knaven, O’Grady and Van Summeren). All the signs point to Cancellara romping to victory for a third time.

It is hard to argue against this logic considering his dominant win at Flanders and past performances in this race. The only way I can see him beaten is if the race follows a similar pattern to 2011 where large groups of riders went up the road and eventually Cancellara was left isolated by his teammates and unable to chase down Van Summeren in time. The onus will be on Omega Pharma-Quick-Step and Team Sky to send some of their strong riders up the rode early in the race. If Cancellara still has a couple of teammates for support after the infamous Arenberg section of cobbles then I can’t see anyone beating him.

Having said that I still think there are some value each way bets to be had for a top three finish. First here are some I will not be backing:

Hushovd – has not finished Flanders, Milan-San Remo or E3 Prijs Vlaanderen – Harelbeke this season.

Phinney – amazed he is going in as joint second favourite at 14/1. Will likely win this race in his career but not this early on.

Stannard and Thomas – both priced too short at 16s and 20s respectively. Expecting strong rides from them and Team Sky after their shocker in Flanders but not podiums.

Boasson Hagen – Flanders confirmed to me that he has not got the legs to match the best

 

Here are some that are worth considering:

OMLOOP HET NIEUWSBLAD

Johan Vansummeren 66/1: The winner of the 2011 race. He really impressed me at Flanders with his positioning for the key periods of the race and looked stronger than I have seen him all year. He is clearly Garmin-Sharp’s team leader. Snap up those nice odds from Bet365

Stijn Vandenbergh 80/1: For me his is the best chance in the Omega Pharma team. Terpstra looked off the pace in the Flanders and historically Chavanel has never done well at Roubaix. Vandenbergh has shown well in many races this year especially the flatter semi-classics. His only drawback is that he can’t sprint so would only win solo or he is was up against Flecha.

Matthieu Ladagnous 100/1: 5th in Flanders and 6th in Gent – Wevelgem this year. Also was 12th in this race last year. Only worry is that he is French. As they have not won a monument since Laurent Jalabert in the 1997 Tour of Lombardy. Drought

Sebastian Langeveld 80/1: If you watch Orica – Greenedge’s excellent backstage pass videos you will have noticed that he felt he had great legs at Flanders. He rode well there and was positioned well by his team. Stuart O’Grady will be key for him on Sunday as his experience in this race should put him prime position heading into the key cobbled sectors. Langeveld has been threatening a big result all year and I fancy Sunday he could get it.

Lars Boom 25/1: He is bullish about his chances and form. He has all the makings of a strong single day rider but has yet to pull off a big result yet. In stage races he has been more successful winning prologue and the GC three times. Came 12th here in 2011 and 6th last year so another improvement could see him on the podium.

Sebastian Turgot 66/1: I tipped him for Flanders last week at 200/1 as many of you must have done, as his price came in before the race. He rode well there finishing 8th after attacking before Cancellara and Sagan made their move. He surprised many to come second in Roubaix last year. At 66/1 he is worth a nibble but maybe last week was his peak.

 

Key links

Start list

History of recent podium finishes

Oddscheckers compilation of odds

2011 Paris Roubaix video

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Posted on April 3, 2013, in Betting, Cycling and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

  1. I bet the winner will be riding a Cervelo R3! :)

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