Vuelta a España Betting selections

The third and final grand tour gets underway this weekend. Rather than writing a preview of the race I will point you in the direction of the Inner Rings comprehensive one. Also I have written a preview for Unibet which you can read here.

Here are my betting selections for the race:

Lay Gesink and Van den Broeck for the top 6 (Betfair)

Initially this bet may seem to be based on bitterness as I backed both riders to come in the top three at the Tour de France and they both did not. There is more behind this bet. A little bit of research on the team websites and their press releases about Vuelta team reveals both riders are not going for the overall win. Van den Broeck has been instructed to focus on stage wins rather than the overall as they don’t think he is physically up for the challenge after his exertions at the Tour de France.

Gesink goes into the race as co-leader of the Rabobank cycling team with Bauke Mollema. But the Team DS Adri van Houwelingen has said that he thinks Mollema has a better chance. So Gesink is likely to have to sacrifice his own chances for the overall to work for Mollema.

Top 10 Overall Classifications

This year’s Vuelta is wide open in the lower half of the top 10 in the GC. Froome and Contador are likely to take the top two spots while behind them riders like Rodriguez, Cobo, Mollema and De Gendt will challenge. Outside of that there is plenty of potential for some surprising names coming in the top 10 at the end of the three weeks. Again looking at the team websites you are able to tell who is going to be the team leader and therefore who will have the full support of the team behind him.

Eros Capecchi is going to be the leader of Liquigas Cannondale for this race. He rode well in the recent Vuelta a Burgos to finish 8th overall. He has never gone into a grand tour as the team leader but at 8/1 with SkyBet I seem him as a good value bet.

Dario Cataldo is listed on the Omega Pharma – QuickStep team as one of the three potential team leaders along with Kevin De Weert and Serge Pauwels. De Weert has not had good  form recently while Pauwels has never proven himself over three weeks in a grand tour. Cataldo has coming just 12th in the last two editions of the Giro. He came 4th on the mountain stage of the recent Tour de L’Ain. Now is his chance to break into the top 10 in grand tour, he is priced at 14/1 with Bet365

Cameron Meyer is a rider who not many will associate with an assault on the top 10 in a grand tour. Orica-Greenedge are not talking up his abilities yet but he has the power and recovery ability to be moulded into the Wiggins style of Grand Tour rider. I see him has becoming the main Australian grand tour contender in the next couple of years. Neil Stephens (the team DS for the Vuelta) has said that Meyer is the only rider in their squad who is going into the race with any GC aims. There were signs earlier in the year at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour of California that Meyer is developing as a climber. There is a reason why Meyer pulled out of the Australian Olympic track team and I think we could see why on the roads of Spain. At 40/1 he is my big otuside bet of the race.

Another rider who is just as unproven in Grand Tours is Andrew Talansky. At 4/1 with Sportingbet many may feel he is far too short. I still see it as a value bet, largely because the Garmin-Sharp team have given him the leadership of the team. He has put him some good performances this year coming second to Wiggins in the Tour de Romandie and more recently win

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Posted on August 17, 2012, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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